Plasmodium falciparum pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 gene deletions among patients enrolled at 100 health facilities throughout Tanzania: February to July 2021.

Plasmodium falciparum with the histidine rich protein 2 gene (pfhrp2) deleted from its genome can escape diagnosis by HRP2-based rapid diagnostic tests (HRP2-RDTs). The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends switching to a non-HRP2 RDT for P. falciparum clinical case diagnosis when pfhrp2 deletion prevalence causes ≥ 5% of RDTs to return false negative results. Tanzania is a country of heterogenous P. falciparum transmission, with some regions approaching elimination and others at varying levels of control. In concordance with the current recommended WHO pfhrp2 deletion surveillance strategy, 100 health facilities encompassing 10 regions of Tanzania enrolled malaria-suspected patients between February and July 2021. Of 7863 persons of all ages enrolled and providing RDT result and blood sample, 3777 (48.0%) were positive by the national RDT testing for Plasmodium lactate dehydrogenase (pLDH) and/or HRP2. A second RDT testing specifically for the P. falciparum LDH (Pf-pLDH) antigen found 95 persons (2.5% of all RDT positives) were positive, though negative by the national RDT for HRP2, and were selected for pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 (pfhrp2/3) genotyping. Multiplex antigen detection by laboratory bead assay found 135/7847 (1.7%) of all blood samples positive for Plasmodium antigens but very low or no HRP2, and these were selected for genotyping as well. Of the samples selected for genotyping based on RDT or laboratory multiplex result, 158 were P. falciparum DNA positive, and 140 had sufficient DNA to be genotyped for pfhrp2/3. Most of these (125/140) were found to be pfhrp2+/pfhrp3+, with smaller numbers deleted for only pfhrp2 (n = 9) or only pfhrp3 (n = 6). No dual pfhrp2/3 deleted parasites were observed. This survey found that parasites with these gene deletions are rare in Tanzania, and estimated that 0.24% (95% confidence interval: 0.08% to 0.39%) of false-negative HRP2-RDTs for symptomatic persons were due to pfhrp2 deletions in this 2021 Tanzania survey. These data provide evidence for HRP2-based diagnostics as currently accurate for P. falciparum diagnosis in Tanzania.

Prevalence of non-falciparum malaria infections among asymptomatic individuals in four regions of Mainland Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Recent studies point to the need to incorporate the detection of non-falciparum species into malaria surveillance activities in sub-Saharan Africa, where 95% of the world's malaria cases occur. Although malaria caused by infection with Plasmodium falciparum is typically more severe than malaria caused by the non-falciparum Plasmodium species P. malariae, P. ovale spp. and P. vivax, the latter may be more challenging to diagnose, treat, control and ultimately eliminate. The prevalence of non-falciparum species throughout sub-Saharan Africa is poorly defined. Tanzania has geographical heterogeneity in transmission levels but an overall high malaria burden. METHODS: To estimate the prevalence of malaria species in Mainland Tanzania, we randomly selected 1428 samples from 6005 asymptomatic isolates collected in previous cross-sectional community surveys across four regions and analyzed these by quantitative PCR to detect and identify the Plasmodium species. RESULTS: Plasmodium falciparum was the most prevalent species in all samples, with P. malariae and P. ovale spp. detected at a lower prevalence (< 5%) in all four regions; P. vivax was not detected in any sample. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study indicate that malaria elimination efforts in Tanzania will need to account for and enhance surveillance of these non-falciparum species.

Evidence of artemisinin partial resistance in North-western Tanzania: clinical and drug resistance markers study.

Background: Artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) are the recommended antimalarial drugs for the treatment of uncomplicated malaria. The recent emergence of artemisinin partial resistance (ART-R) in Rwanda, Uganda and Eritrea is of great concern. In Tanzania, a nationwide molecular malaria surveillance in 2021 showed a high prevalence of the Kelch13 (K13) 561H mutation in Plasmodium falciparum from the north-western region, close to the border with Rwanda and Uganda. This study was conducted in 2022 to evaluate the efficacy of artemether-lumefantrine (AL) and artesunate-amodiaquine (ASAQ) for the treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria and to confirm the presence of ART-R in Tanzania. Methods: This single-arm study evaluated the efficacy of AL and ASAQ in eligible children aged six months to 10 years at Bukangara Dispensary in Karagwe District, Kagera Region. Clinical and parasitological responses were monitored for 28 days according to standard WHO protocol. Mutations in K13 gene and extended haplotypes with these mutations were analysed using Sanger and whole genome sequencing data, respectively. Findings: 176 children (88 in each AL and ASAQ group) were enrolled and all achieved the defined outcomes. PCR-corrected adequate clinical and parasitological response (ACPR) was 98.3% (95% CI: 90.8-100) and 100.0% (95% CI: 95.8-100) for AL and ASAQ, respectively. Parasitaemia on day 3 was observed in 11/88 (12.5%) and 17/88 (19.3%) in the AL and ASAQ groups, respectively. The half-life of parasitaemia was significantly higher (>6.5 hrs) in patients with parasitaemia on day 3 and/or mutations in K13 gene at enrolment. Most patients with parasitaemia on day 3 (8/11 = 72.7% in the AL group and 10/17 = 58.8% in the ASAQ group) had 561H mutation at enrolment. The parasites with K13 mutations were not similar to those from south-east Asia and Rwanda, but had the same core haplotype of a new 561H haplotype reported in Kagera in 2021. Interpretation: These findings confirm the presence of ART-R in Tanzania. A context-specific strategy to respond to artemisinin partial resistance is urgently needed. Although both AL and ASAQ showed high efficacy, increased vigilance for reduced efficacy of these ACTs and detection of ART-R in other parts of the country is critical.

Country wide surveillance reveals prevalent artemisinin partial resistance mutations with evidence for multiple origins and expansion of high level sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine resistance mutations in northwest Tanzania.

Background: Emergence of artemisinin partial resistance (ART-R) in Plasmodium falciparum is a growing threat to the efficacy of artemisinin combination therapies (ACT) and the efforts for malaria elimination. The emergence of Plasmodium falciparum Kelch13 (K13) R561H in Rwanda raised concern about the impact in neighboring Tanzania. In addition, regional concern over resistance affecting sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP), which is used for chemoprevention strategies, is high. Methods: To enhance longitudinal monitoring, the Molecular Surveillance of Malaria in Tanzania (MSMT) project was launched in 2020 with the goal of assessing and mapping antimalarial resistance. Community and clinic samples were assessed for resistance polymorphisms using a molecular inversion probe platform. Findings: Genotyping of 6,278 samples collected countrywide in 2021 revealed a focus of K13 561H mutants in northwestern Tanzania (Kagera) with prevalence of 7.7% (50/649). A small number of 561H mutants (about 1%) were found as far as 800 km away in Tabora, Manyara, and Njombe. Genomic analysis suggests some of these parasites are highly related to isolates collected in Rwanda in 2015, supporting regional spread of 561H. However, a novel haplotype was also observed, likely indicating a second origin in the region. Other validated resistance polymorphisms (622I and 675V) were also identified. A focus of high sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine drug resistance was also identified in Kagera with a prevalence of dihydrofolate reductase 164L of 15% (80/526). Interpretation: These findings demonstrate the K13 561H mutation is entrenched in the region and that multiple origins of ART-R, similar as to what was seen in Southeast Asia, have occurred. Mutations associated with high levels of SP resistance are increasing. These results raise concerns about the long-term efficacy of artemisinin and chemoprevention antimalarials in the region. Funding: This study was funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and the National Institutes of Health.

Malaria species positivity rates among symptomatic individuals across regions of differing transmission intensities in Mainland Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Recent data indicate that non-Plasmodium falciparum species may be more prevalent than thought in sub-Saharan Africa. Although Plasmodium malariae, Plasmodium ovale spp., and Plasmodium vivax are less severe than P. falciparum, treatment and control are more challenging, and their geographic distributions are not well characterized. METHODS: We randomly selected 3,284 of 12,845 samples collected from cross-sectional surveys in 100 health facilities across ten regions of Mainland Tanzania and performed quantitative real-time PCR to determine presence and parasitemia of each malaria species. RESULTS: P. falciparum was most prevalent, but P. malariae and P. ovale were found in all but one region, with high levels (>5%) of P. ovale in seven regions. The highest P. malariae positivity rate was 4.5% in Mara and eight regions had positivity rates ≥1%. We only detected three P. vivax infections, all in Kilimanjaro. While most non-falciparum malaria-positive samples were co-infected with P. falciparum, 23.6% (n = 13/55) of P. malariae and 14.7% (n = 24/163) of P. ovale spp. were mono-infections. CONCLUSIONS: P. falciparum remains by far the largest threat, but our data indicate that malaria elimination efforts in Tanzania will require increased surveillance and improved understanding of the biology of non-falciparum species.

Malaria species positivity rates among symptomatic individuals across regions of differing transmission intensities in Mainland Tanzania.

Recent data indicate that non- Plasmodium falciparum species may be more prevalent than previously realized in sub-Saharan Africa, the region where 95% of the world's malaria cases occur. Although Plasmodium malariae, Plasmodium ovale spp., and Plasmodium vivax are generally less severe than P. falciparum , treatment and control are more challenging, and their geographic distributions are not well characterized. In order to characterize the distribution of malaria species in Mainland Tanzania (which has a high burden and geographically heterogeneous transmission levels), we randomly selected 3,284 samples from 12,845 samples to determine presence and parasitemia of different malaria species. The samples were collected from cross-sectional surveys in 100 health facilities across ten regions and analyzed via quantitative real-time PCR to characterize regional positivity rates for each species. P. falciparum was most prevalent, but P. malariae and P. ovale were found in all regions except Dar es Salaam, with high levels (>5%) of P. ovale in seven regions (70%). The highest positivity rate of P. malariae was 4.5% in Mara region and eight regions (80%) had positivity rates ≥1%. We also detected three P. vivax infections in the very low-transmission Kilimanjaro region. While most samples that tested positive for non-falciparum malaria were co-infected with P. falciparum , 23.6% (n = 13/55) of P. malariae and 14.7% (n = 24/163) of P. ovale spp. samples were mono-infections. P. falciparum remains by far the largest threat, but our data indicate that malaria elimination efforts in Tanzania will require increased surveillance and improved understanding of the biology of non-falciparum species.

Spatio-temporal modelling of routine health facility data for malaria risk micro-stratification in mainland Tanzania.

As malaria transmission declines, the need to monitor the heterogeneity of malaria risk at finer scales becomes critical to guide community-based targeted interventions. Although routine health facility (HF) data can provide epidemiological evidence at high spatial and temporal resolution, its incomplete nature of information can result in lower administrative units without empirical data. To overcome geographic sparsity of data and its representativeness, geo-spatial models can leverage routine information to predict risk in un-represented areas as well as estimate uncertainty of predictions. Here, a Bayesian spatio-temporal model was applied on malaria test positivity rate (TPR) data for the period 2017-2019 to predict risks at the ward level, the lowest decision-making unit in mainland Tanzania. To quantify the associated uncertainty, the probability of malaria TPR exceeding programmatic threshold was estimated. Results showed a marked spatial heterogeneity in malaria TPR across wards. 17.7 million people resided in areas where malaria TPR was high (≥ 30; 90% certainty) in the North-West and South-East parts of Tanzania. Approximately 11.7 million people lived in areas where malaria TPR was very low (< 5%; 90% certainty). HF data can be used to identify different epidemiological strata and guide malaria interventions at micro-planning units in Tanzania. These data, however, are imperfect in many settings in Africa and often require application of geo-spatial modelling techniques for estimation.

Using antenatal care as a platform for malaria surveillance data collection: study protocol.

BACKGROUND: While many malaria-endemic countries have health management information systems that can measure and report malaria trends in a timely manner, these routine systems have limitations. Periodic community cross-sectional household surveys are used to estimate malaria prevalence and intervention coverage but lack geographic granularity and are resource intensive. Incorporating malaria testing for all women at their first antenatal care (ANC) visit (i.e., ANC1) could provide a more timely and granular source of data for monitoring trends in malaria burden and intervention coverage. This article describes a protocol designed to assess if ANC-based surveillance could be a pragmatic tool to monitor malaria. METHODS: This is an observational, cross-sectional study conducted in Benin, Burkina Faso, Mozambique, Nigeria, Tanzania, and Zambia. Pregnant women attending ANC1 in selected health facilities will be tested for malaria infection by rapid diagnostic test and administered a brief questionnaire to capture key indicators of malaria control intervention coverage and care-seeking behaviour. In each location, contemporaneous cross-sectional household surveys will be leveraged to assess correlations between estimates obtained using each method, and the use of ANC data as a tool to track trends in malaria burden and intervention coverage will be validated. RESULTS: This study will assess malaria prevalence at ANC1 aggregated at health facility and district levels, and by gravidity relative to current pregnancy (i.e., gravida 1, gravida 2, and gravida 3 +). ANC1 malaria prevalence will be presented as monthly trends. Additionally, correlation between ANC1 and household survey-derived estimates of malaria prevalence, bed net ownership and use, and care-seeking will be assessed. CONCLUSION: ANC1-based surveillance has the potential to provide a cost-effective, localized measure of malaria prevalence that is representative of the general population and useful for tracking monthly changes in parasite prevalence, as well as providing population-representative estimates of intervention coverage and care-seeking behavior. This study will evaluate the representativeness of these measures and collect information on operational feasibility, usefulness for programmatic decision-making, and potential for scale-up of malaria ANC1 surveillance.

Women attending antenatal care as a sentinel surveillance population for malaria in Geita region, Tanzania: feasibility and acceptability to women and providers.

BACKGROUND: Measurement of malaria prevalence is conventionally estimated through infrequent cross-sectional household surveys that do not provide continuous information regarding malaria parasitaemia. Recent studies have suggested that malaria parasitaemia prevalence among women attending antenatal care (ANC) correlates with prevalence among children under 5 years old and that pregnant women could be a sentinel population for tracking malaria prevalence. In mainland Tanzania, 97% of women are tested for malaria parasitaemia during first ANC visits. However, acceptability among pregnant women and healthcare providers of collecting malaria risk factor data during ANC visits is limited. METHODS: A tablet-based questionnaire including 15 questions on insecticide-treated net ownership and use and care-seeking for febrile children was introduced at 40 healthcare facilities in Geita Region, Tanzania. Facilities were randomly selected from among those with 15-120 first ANC visits per month. To assess perspectives regarding introduction of the questionnaire, 21 semi-structured interviews were held with providers and facility in-charges at 12 facilities. Thirty pregnant and recently delivered women participated in focus group discussions at seven facilities to assess the acceptability of spending additional time answering questions about malaria risk. RESULTS: All pregnant women reported that introduction of ANC surveillance and spending 10 more minutes with providers answering questions about their health would be neutral or beneficial. They perceived being asked about their health as standard of care. Providers and in-charges reported that introduction of ANC surveillance was within their scope of practice. Nine of 21 indicated it could potentially benefit women's health. Six providers expressed concern about staffing shortages and need for reimbursement for extra time and noted that data management occurs after hours. CONCLUSIONS: Pregnant women and providers generally perceived ANC surveillance for malaria as acceptable and positive. Pregnant and recently delivered women saw this as a reasonable and even helpful intervention. To be seen as a part of standard practice, efforts are needed to ensure providers perceive a benefit for ANC clients and that staffing concerns are addressed. In addition, staff should receive feedback related to data submissions regarding malaria prevalence and risk factors among women at their facility, with actions to take.

Estimating population ITN access at council level in Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Since 2013, the National Malaria Control Programme in mainland Tanzania and the Zanzibar Malaria Elimination Programme have implemented mass insecticide-treated net (ITN) distribution campaigns, routine ITN distribution to pregnant women and infants, and continuous distribution through primary schools (mainland) and community leaders (Zanzibar) to further malaria control efforts. Mass campaigns are triggered when ITN access falls below 40%. In this context, there is a need to monitor ITN access annually to assess whether it is below threshold and inform quantification of ITNs for the following year. Annual estimates of access are needed at the council level to inform programmatic decision-making. METHODS: An age-structured stock and flow model was used to predict annual net crops from council-level distribution data in Tanzania from 2012 to 2020 parameterized with a Tanzania-specific net median lifespan of 2.15 years. Annual nets-per-capita (NPC) was calculated by dividing each annual net crop by mid-year council projected population. A previously fit nonparametric conditional quantile function for the proportion of the population with access to an ITN (ITN access) as a function of NPC was used to predict ITN access at the council level based on the predicted NPC value. These estimates were compared to regional-level ITN access from large household surveys. RESULTS: For regions with the same ITN strategy for all councils, predicted council-level ITN access was consistent with regional-level survey data for 79% of councils. Regions where ITN strategy varied by council had regional estimates of ITN access that diverged from the council-specific estimates. Predicted ITN access reached 60% only when "nets issued as a percentage of the council population" (NPP) exceeded 15%, and approached 80% ITN access when NPP was at or above 20%. CONCLUSION: Modelling ITN access with country-specific net decay rates, council-level population, and ITN distribution data is a promising approach to monitor ITN coverage sub-regionally and between household surveys in Tanzania and beyond.

Malaria species prevalence among asymptomatic individuals in four regions of Mainland Tanzania.

Recent studies point to the need to incorporate non-falciparum species detection into malaria surveillance activities in sub-Saharan Africa, where 95% of malaria cases occur. Although Plasmodium falciparum infection is typically more severe, diagnosis, treatment, and control for P. malariae, P. ovale spp., and P. vivax may be more challenging. The prevalence of these species throughout sub-Saharan Africa is poorly defined. Tanzania has geographically heterogeneous transmission levels but an overall high malaria burden. In order to estimate the prevalence of malaria species in Mainland Tanzania, 1,428 samples were randomly selected from 6,005 asymptomatic isolates collected in cross-sectional community surveys across four regions and analyzed via qPCR to detect each Plasmodium species. P. falciparum was most prevalent, with P. malariae and P. ovale spp. detected at lower prevalence (<5%) in all four regions. P. vivax was not detected. Malaria elimination efforts in Tanzania will need to account for these non-falciparum species.

Improvements in malaria surveillance through the electronic Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (eIDSR) system in mainland Tanzania, 2013-2021.

BACKGROUND: Tanzania has made remarkable progress in reducing malaria burden and aims to transition from malaria control to sub-national elimination. In 2013, electronic weekly and monthly reporting platforms using the District Health Information System 2 (DHIS2) were introduced. Weekly reporting was implemented through the mobile phone-based Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (eIDSR) platform and progressively scaled-up from 67 to 7471 (100%) public and private health facilities between 2013 and 2020. This study describes the roll-out and large-scale implementation of eIDSR and compares the consistency between weekly eIDSR and monthly DHIS2 malaria indicator data reporting, including an assessment of its usefulness for malaria outbreak detection and case-based surveillance (CBS) in low transmission areas. METHODS: The indicators included in the analysis were number of patients tested for malaria, number of confirmed malaria cases, and clinical cases (treated presumptively for malaria). The analysis described the time trends of reporting, testing, test positivity, and malaria cases between 2013 and 2021. For both weekly eIDSR and monthly DHIS2 data, comparisons of annual reporting completeness, malaria cases and annualized incidence were performed for 2020 and 2021; additionally, comparisons were stratified by malaria epidemiological strata (parasite prevalence: very low < 1%, low 1 ≤ 5%, moderate 5 ≤ 30%, and high > 30%). RESULTS: Weekly eIDSR reporting completeness steadily improved over time, with completeness being 90.2% in 2020 and 93.9% in 2021; conversely, monthly DHIS2 reporting completeness was 98.9% and 98.7% in 2020 and 2021, respectively. Weekly eIDSR reporting completeness and timeliness were highest in the very low epidemiological stratum. Annualized malaria incidence as reported by weekly eIDSR was 17.5% and 12.4% lower than reported by monthly DHIS2 in 2020 and 2021; for both 2020 and 2021, annualized incidence was similar across weekly and monthly data in the very low stratum. CONCLUSION: The concurrence of annualized weekly eIDSR and monthly DHIS2 reporting completeness, malaria cases and incidence in very low strata suggests that eIDSR could be useful tool for early outbreak detection, and the eIDSR platform could reliably be expanded by adding more indicators and modules for CBS in the very low epidemiological stratum.

The use of routine health facility data for micro-stratification of malaria risk in mainland Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Current efforts to estimate the spatially diverse malaria burden in malaria-endemic countries largely involve the use of epidemiological modelling methods for describing temporal and spatial heterogeneity using sparse interpolated prevalence data from periodic cross-sectional surveys. However, more malaria-endemic countries are beginning to consider local routine data for this purpose. Nevertheless, routine information from health facilities (HFs) remains widely under-utilized despite improved data quality, including increased access to diagnostic testing and the adoption of the electronic District Health Information System (DHIS2). This paper describes the process undertaken in mainland Tanzania using routine data to develop a high-resolution, micro-stratification risk map to guide future malaria control efforts. METHODS: Combinations of various routine malariometric indicators collected from 7098 HFs were assembled across 3065 wards of mainland Tanzania for the period 2017-2019. The reported council-level prevalence classification in school children aged 5-16 years (PfPR5-16) was used as a benchmark to define four malaria risk groups. These groups were subsequently used to derive cut-offs for the routine indicators by minimizing misclassifications and maximizing overall agreement. The derived-cutoffs were converted into numbered scores and summed across the three indicators to allocate wards into their overall risk stratum. RESULTS: Of 3065 wards, 353 were assigned to the very low strata (10.5% of the total ward population), 717 to the low strata (28.6% of the population), 525 to the moderate strata (16.2% of the population), and 1470 to the high strata (39.8% of the population). The resulting micro-stratification revealed malaria risk heterogeneity within 80 councils and identified wards that would benefit from community-level focal interventions, such as community-case management, indoor residual spraying and larviciding. CONCLUSION: The micro-stratification approach employed is simple and pragmatic, with potential to be easily adopted by the malaria programme in Tanzania. It makes use of available routine data that are rich in spatial resolution and that can be readily accessed allowing for a stratification of malaria risk below the council level. Such a framework is optimal for supporting evidence-based, decentralized malaria control planning, thereby improving the effectiveness and allocation efficiency of malaria control interventions.

Potential Opportunities and Challenges of Deploying Next Generation Sequencing and CRISPR-Cas Systems to Support Diagnostics and Surveillance Towards Malaria Control and Elimination in Africa.

Recent developments in molecular biology and genomics have revolutionized biology and medicine mainly in the developed world. The application of next generation sequencing (NGS) and CRISPR-Cas tools is now poised to support endemic countries in the detection, monitoring and control of endemic diseases and future epidemics, as well as with emerging and re-emerging pathogens. Most low and middle income countries (LMICs) with the highest burden of infectious diseases still largely lack the capacity to generate and perform bioinformatic analysis of genomic data. These countries have also not deployed tools based on CRISPR-Cas technologies. For LMICs including Tanzania, it is critical to focus not only on the process of generation and analysis of data generated using such tools, but also on the utilization of the findings for policy and decision making. Here we discuss the promise and challenges of NGS and CRISPR-Cas in the context of malaria as Africa moves towards malaria elimination. These innovative tools are urgently needed to strengthen the current diagnostic and surveillance systems. We discuss ongoing efforts to deploy these tools for malaria detection and molecular surveillance highlighting potential opportunities presented by these innovative technologies as well as challenges in adopting them. Their deployment will also offer an opportunity to broadly build in-country capacity in pathogen genomics and bioinformatics, and to effectively engage with multiple stakeholders as well as policy makers, overcoming current workforce and infrastructure challenges. Overall, these ongoing initiatives will build the malaria molecular surveillance capacity of African researchers and their institutions, and allow them to generate genomics data and perform bioinformatics analysis in-country in order to provide critical information that will be used for real-time policy and decision-making to support malaria elimination on the continent.

Annual distributions of insecticide-treated nets to schoolchildren and other key populations to maintain higher ITN access than with mass campaigns: a modelling study for mainland Tanzania.

BACKGROUND: Since 2013, the National Malaria Control Programme in mainland Tanzania has deployed annual distributions of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) through primary schools to maintain ITN access and use. This School Net Programme (SNP) is slated to be used throughout mainland Tanzania by 2023. This modelling study projects ITN access under different ITN distribution strategies and quantification approaches. METHODS: A stock and flow model with a Tanzania-specific ITN decay rate was used to calculate annual net crops for four different ITN distribution strategies, varying quantification approaches within each strategy. Annual nets-per-capita (NPC) was derived from net crop and a standardized population projection. Nonparametric conditional quartile functions for the proportion of the population with access to an ITN (ITN access) as a function of NPC were used to predict ITN access and its variability. The number of ITNs required under the varying quantification approaches for the period 2022-2030 was calculated. RESULTS: Annual SNP quantified using a "population times 15%" approach maintained ITN access between 80 and 90%, when combined with reproductive and child health (RCH) ITN distribution, requiring 133.2 million ITNs. The same strategy quantified with "population times 22%" maintained ITN access at or above 90%, requiring 175.5 million ITNs. Under 5-year mass campaigns with RCH distribution for pregnant women and infants, ITN access reached 90% post-campaign and fell to 27-35% in the 4th year post-campaign, requiring 120.5 million ITNs over 8 years. 3-yearly mass campaigns with RCH reached 100% ITN access post-campaign and fell to 70% in the 3rd year post-campaign, requiring 154.4 million ITNs. CONCLUSION: Given an ITN retention time in Tanzania of 2.15 years, the model predicts that mass campaigns conducted every 3 years in mainland Tanzania will not maintain ITN access at target levels of 80%, even with strong RCH channels. Mainland Tanzania can however expect to maintain ITN access at 80% or above by quantifying SNP using "population × 15%", in addition to RCH ITN delivery. This strategy requires 14% fewer ITNs than a 3-year campaign strategy while providing more consistent ITN coverage. Meeting the targets of 80% ITN use would require maintaining 90% ITN access, achievable using a "population times 22%" quantification approach for SNP.